Predicted value of left ventricular mass for long-distance runners using Poisson's probability distribution

Abstract

Sports heart syndrome is a common condition among athletes, reflecting a physiological adaptation of the heart muscle. Therefore, it is not a disease in itself. Hypertrophy of the heart muscle is observed at the level of the heart walls, as in anaerobic activities, while dilation of the heart chambers is observed as in oxygenated activities, particularly in the left ventricle, which is directly responsible for pumping oxygenated blood throughout the body.

The problem is the lack of reliable numerical data on the rate of increase in left ventricular muscle mass over months and years of training in long-distance runners, data readily available to specialists and coaches.

The study sample is a purposive sample of (18) long-distance runners who regularly train and have been practicing long-distance events for (2-6) years.

Statistical analysis: The Poisson distribution was used to determine the probability of left ventricular mass increase during the training years. Study conclusions: The initial adaptation of left ventricular mass appeared in the first and second years, with the highest probability of an increase of 1 gram. The probability of an increase of 2–6 grams in the first two years was very low. The highest probability of an increase of 1 gram and 2 grams appeared in the third and fourth years, while the probability of an increase of 3–6 grams in the third and fourth years was low. Additionally, the highest probability of an increase of 2 grams and 3 grams appeared in the fifth and sixth years, while the probability of an increase of 4–6 grams in the fifth and sixth years was low.

The study recommends adopting the study results in planning the training of long-distance runners and in the medical examination and detection of cardiac muscle adaptations, especially the left ventricle